Visa CEO downplays the threat of FedNow

Visa sign at the Singapore Fintech Festival
Visa's earnings beat analysts' expectations and the card network affirmed its outlook for the next quarter.
Lionel Ng/Bloomberg

Visa's chief executive insists that the Federal Reserve's instant settlement system's impending launch should not hurt the card network's own real-time payment options. 

FedNow is expected to launch in July, joining The Clearing House's RTP network in the U.S. as an option for instant settlement. Both systems have the potential to compete with Visa Direct, which uses Visa's debit rails to enable real-time transfers between cardholders. Visa Direct is used by 66 ACH networks, 11 real-time payment networks and 16 card-based networks with the potential to reach more than 7 billion endpoints globally, according to the card network.

"The most instructive thing to do is look around the world. The U.K. has had Faster Payments [the U.K.'s real-time system] for 15 years and we haven't seen much if any impact on our U.K. debit volume," said Ryan McInerney, Visa's CEO, during Tuesday's earnings call. "And the U.K. is a growing market for Visa Direct." 

For the quarter ending March 31, Visa reported net revenue of $7.99 billion, up from $7.19 billion the prior year. It additionally reported earnings per share of $2.09, up from $1.79 the prior year. That beat analyst expectations of $1.99 per share and net revenue of $7.79 billion, according to Seeking Alpha

Visa's total payments volume in the quarter was $2.96 trillion, which beat Seeking Alpha analysts' expectations of $2.95 trillion and was up from $2.39 trillion the prior year. Visa reports payment volume trends thus far in 2024 are enabling it to affirm its outlook for low-double-digit growth in the next quarter, despite a slowdown in U.S. payment volume in March.

During the earnings call, analysts asked McInerney how FedNow could become a competitive threat. McInerney suggested FedNow could instead be a partner. 

"We want to work with any real-time payment network on the planet," McInerney said. 

McInerney-Ryan-Visa
Visa CEO Ryan McInerney says the card brand can exist alongside FedNow.

While large banks were initially opposed to FedNow, both the Fed and The Clearing House say they are working together to smooth out any differences. "FedNow will modernize the payment infrastructure in the U.S. It's the smart thing to do, It's the necessary thing to do. And it is good for all Americans," McInerney said. 

RTP, which launched in 2018, has more than 300 bank members and covers about 70% of the addressable bank accounts in the U.S. FedNow could reach as many as 9,000 financial institutions and cover nearly all deposits, though that migration is expected to take time, perhaps a year or more. 

RTP and FedNow also are not interoperable, so work will be required to ensure the two rails can work together — and with their counterparts in other countries. 

Real-time payments could improve account-to-account transfers, remittances, gig-economy payouts and other uses. Visa Direct, which has partners including Remitly, Xoom, Western Union and MoneyGram, also has global scale, according to McInerney, suggesting real-time payment networks in the U.S. still have room to grow. 

"FedNow will take some time to build adoption," McInerney said. "One of the most powerful capabilities in payments is ubiquity. RTP doesn't have that yet. It will happen in the U.S. but it will take time." 

Analysts also asked about plans to expand Visa+, a P2P service that Visa plans to launch later this year. Visa+ will enable users to send funds over two different transfer apps, such as PayPal to Venmo, which do not support direct transfers despite their corporate relationship. Visa+'s other partners include Western Union and DailyPay, though McInerney was noncommittal about plans for the service outside of the U.S. 

"It's not easy to get money from one app to another," McInerney said. "It's early days, though we have gotten good feedback. We're initially focused in the U.S. and will go from there." 

In a research note, Kevin Kennedy, an analyst at Third Bridge, said it is monitoring how Visa+ extends the card network's infrastructure positioning among digital wallets. "We are particularly interested in its effect on the cross-border and remittance space given the bifurcation of legacy and digitally enabled providers."

While Visa posted strong earnings overall, the card brand said it was monitoring for any impact from an economic downturn or geopolitical shock and is prepared to reassess its investment strategy and prioritization for product development. 

"Consumers seem to be broadly scaling back on consumption given the strain of sticky, yet abating, inflation and higher cost of credit," said Kennedy in his research note. 

Visa and Mastercard, which reports earnings on Thursday, so far in 2023 have both reported the impacts of a potential economic downturn have not yet shown up in payments volumes. While Visa's U.S. payment volume declined in March, that decline appeared to stabilize in April, according to an analyst note from Jeffries, which stated that is a good sign for Visa's future performance. Jeffries reiterated its "buy" rating for Visa as a result. Visa's stock price increased 1.95%, to $231.54 per share, in after-hours trading on Tuesday. 

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