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A minimum credit score would not cap or regulate risk, or even measure it consistently. Instead it would ensure that the risk floor for QRMs would actually fluctuate.
July 29 -
More specifically, growth opportunities come from predicting which borrowers in a portfolio will — and which will not — pose new risks and which ones are poised to improve their creditworthiness.
March 29 -
VantageScore's new credit scoring model ignores accounts that were referred to collection agencies but then paid off. The company cites cold, hard numbers for its decision to drop a controversial practice.
March 11 -
Nearly everybody knows that paying loans on time can help raise their credit score. But beyond that, a large percentage of Americans know little about their scores, a new survey found.
May 13
Wells Fargo (WFC) and other mortgage lenders have recently begun
Mortgage defaults today are very low. The mortgage delinquency ratethe percentage of borrowers who are behind on their mortgage payments by 60 days or morefell to 3.61% in the first quarter of 2014, declining for the ninth consecutive period,
The mathematics behind the argument for lowering credit score minimums is actually relatively straightforward, if you can get past one common misconception about credit scores. A given credit score is not a static representation of a consumers risk profile. It is a snapshot of the consumers risk profile at the time the score is obtained. But the relationship between a credit score and a borrower's risk profile changes over time. What lies beneath any given credit score is its probability of default, or PD. As economic conditions change, so do credit behaviors, and as a result PD shifts as well.
For example, people with credit scores within the range of 591 610 exhibited a PD of 4% in 2005, according to VantageScore Solutions. In 2010, the PD for the same score range increased by nearly 100%, to approximately 8%. The latter time period coincides with the housing markets collapse and the ensuing recessionary environment. PD shifts of varying magnitude are seen across all credit-score segments for the same time period.
To put this into perspective, a mortgage lender using a strategy that set acceptable loans to a PD limit of 4.5% in 2005 would have set a score cutoff of 600. By 2010, the same score cutoff of 600 would have represented a PD of 8.5%--an unacceptable risk. By then, a lender wishing to uphold its lending standard of a 4.5% PD would have needed to raise its credit-score cutoff to 660.
That's exactly what most lenders did in the wake of the recession. However, unlike their peers in the credit card and auto finance industries, most mortgage lenders have not reduced credit score cutoffs in conjunction with post-recession declines in default rates. This is one reason credit remains tight for mortgage applications, as credit scores remain the principal gateway for entering the credit space.
Reducing credit score cutoffs for mortgages may not be the solution to all the housing industry's woes. But the impact would be meaningful, according to a September 2013 paper by Jim Parrott, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute and former senior adviser to the National Economic Council, and Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moodys Analytics.
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Ultimately, lenders, services, investors and the government-backed agencies that control much of the mortgage underwriting must decide for themselves what risk levels are right for their businesses. This makes it all the more critical that market participants recognize the elasticity of credit scores.
By the same token, market observers must recognize that changes in credit score minimums, whether upward or downward, do not necessarily reflect a desire to increase or decrease risk exposure. Rather, they often stem from the desire to maintain consistent risk exposure.
This approach allows the credit box to ebb and flow according to risk, allowing greater access to credit for consumers in the short term and more effective risk management for lenders in the longer term.
Barrett Burns is president and chief executive of VantageScore Solutions, an independently managed joint venture of the three national credit reporting companies, Equifax, Experian and TransUnion, and the company behind the VantageScore consumer credit scoring model.