-
The Senate Banking Committee held another hearing on FHA's capital shortfall Thursday, debating whether to focus on stabilizing the agency's finances or pushing for more substantive changes.
February 28 -
It is time for the FHA and its supporters to put the interest of working-class families ahead of real estate agents and other interest groups who want to expand its abusive lending practices.
December 26 -
A new study concludes the agency's basic business model puts homeowners at an unacceptably high risk of default with negative consequences for communities. Nothing could be further from the truth.
December 19 -
The agency's annual independent actuarial report is expected to show that its capital reserves have been depleted by rising levels of defaults. FHA could shore up its finances by increasing its enforcement against banks and other lenders, but it may also need to tap the Treasury for the first time in its history.
November 13
Recent
The FHA continued to increase the amount of loans it guaranteed despite not meeting its congressionally mandated capital threshold of 2%.
The FHA has dramatically improved the credit scores of its borrowers in recent years, but continues to be a major source of mortgages to people with bruised or nonexistent credit histories. In the fourth quarter of FY2012, 44% of all FHA borrowers either had no credit score or a score of 679 or lower. In addition, the FHA's commitment to low down payment financing has not wavered through the depths of the credit crisis, as 95% or greater loan-to-ratio financing has continued to make up an overwhelming majority of the loans guaranteed by the FHA.
As a result, most FHA borrowers owe more on their home than they are likely to net on sale for at least several years after origination, assuming a stable housing market. Given the huge volume of loans guaranteed by the FHA in recent years, the preponderance of FHA borrowers who are mediocre to poor credit risks, and the likelihood of these borrowers owing more than their house is worth after factoring in sales costs, the FHA could continue to have the potential to incur huge losses in the event of future housing market downturns for the foreseeable future.
The housing market, at least for now, seems to have stabilized and while the FHA continues to struggle with its legacy of bad loans from 2006 to2009, its financial projections show continued recovery of its finances over the next few years. However, in recent years as its finances have steadily deteriorated, the FHA has continued to assure taxpayers that it was on the cusp of turning things around, so there is ample cause for skepticism.
Congress hasn't yet attempted major reform of its home loan guarantee programs, and given the current political climate in Washington and the bipartisan cooperation required, no action seems likely during this Congress.
However, continued deterioration of the FHA's finances could result in it becoming a problem that is politically impossible to ignore. Given the apparent hostility toward the agency from Republicans on the House Financial Services Committee, this is likely to result in a much smaller scope of permissible lending at the FHA, with a renewed focus on its traditional core of low-income customers resulting in fewer and smaller loans, higher credit score requirements and potentially increased down payments.
Larry Taylor is a managing principal at Capco, a global business and technology consultancy.