WASHINGTON — Critics of the Volcker Rule may be heartened by recent indications that policymakers are prepared to finalize a more bank-friendly version the proprietary trading ban soon, but that relief could come at a price.
The rule is one of the most vexing regulations for the industry to emerge from the Dodd-Frank Act. Yet a Bloomberg report this week, citing unnamed sources, said
It followed last week’s released of data by the Office of Financial Research that bolstered the industry’s case for relief by showing that the trading ban has sapped market liquidity.
But since any dramatic step to weaken the rule will be seen as a gift to the largest banks, it could play into a narrative that the Trump administration’s deregulatory agenda favors big business. This could amplify the rhetoric of Democrats running in the 2020 presidential election.
The Volcker Rule was meant to address a problem first raised by former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis: that there was nothing to prevent banks from using customers’ government-backed funds to enrich their proprietary portfolios. His solution — and the one that was ultimately adopted into Dodd-Frank — was to eliminate those portfolios, thus eliminating any conflict of interest.
Of course, the ban is harder to execute in practice. In addition to trades targeted by the ban, banks hold securities and other vehicles in order to generate markets that might not otherwise exist. The regulatory agencies took that consideration into account when they finalized the Volcker Rule in 2013, creating a market-making exemption. But threading the needle on what kinds of activities qualify for that exemption and which do not has
The regulatory agencies have appeared serious about refining the compliance framework, but it is not completely clear which avenue they will take.
They released an
Some have speculated that regulators will submit a new proposal or finalize non-controversial aspects of the original proposal. Yet the Bloomberg report suggests the agencies are prepared to go further to meet banks’ demands. That potential outcome seemed even likelier Tuesday afternoon when the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. announced a board meeting for Aug. 20 to consider a “final rule” dealing with revisions to the proprietary trading ban.
Yet any moves to weaken the Volcker Rule should weigh the potential effect on how the Trump administration’s bank regulatory agenda will play in the 2020 election. It could serve as a political foil for Democrats who have already railed against “big-bank giveaways.”
Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. — currently
Up to now, many of the
The Volcker Rule, however, could be different. Last year’s
How a Volcker revision is spun on the campaign trail depends entirely on what is different in the new Volcker Rule compared to last year’s proposal and the existing regime. Whatever emerges from the regulators in the coming weeks, politicians will be watching.
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