What does the Fed's interest rate cut mean for investors?

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Bankers breathed a sigh of relief last week as the Federal Reserve's forecasted interest rate cut was put into place on Sept. 18, lowering the federal funds rate by 50 basis points and adjusting the target range to between 4.75% and 5%. After a downbeat second-quarter earnings season, executives are optimistic about the future.

Markets responded positively in the hours following the Federal Open Market Committee's first cut in roughly four years, as the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index jumped more than 1% shortly after the news broke. Experts were divided on whether the Fed would lower its benchmark rate by 25 or 50 basis points.

"We expect their deposit costs to reprice downward more slowly than their loan yields, constraining net interest income, which is most banks' largest revenue source," Allen Tischler, senior vice president at Moody's Ratings, told American Banker's Jim Dobbs in an email.

The decision was approved in an 11-to-1 vote, with Federal Reserve Board Gov. Michelle Bowman as the lone dissenter. Bowman explained in a statement that while she agreed it "was appropriate to recalibrate the level of the federal funds rate," her preference was towards a 25-basis-point cut as "a smaller first move."

"Despite my dissent at our recent meeting, I respect and appreciate that my colleagues preferred to begin the reduction in the federal funds rate with a larger initial reduction in the target range for the policy rate," Bowman said.

Read more: The economic cloud over the Fed's half-point rate cut

Earnings were downcast across the board for U.S-based and non-U.S.-based banks for the second quarter, particularly in net interest income.

Comerica Bank in Dallas saw share prices drop in August following net interest income guidance falling by 14%, while Truist Financial's "higher finding costs and lower earning assets" pulled down net interest income by $77 million year over year.

Among international banks with a presence in the U.S., credit losses were a looming presence over earnings season. 

BMO Financial Group in Montreal roughly doubled its provisions for credit losses compared to the same period last year, to CA$906 million.

Read more: Earnings recap: Citigroup's OCC plan, First Guaranty layoffs

Read on for high-level insights on the top matters pressing investors and what they mean for the financial services industry.

Fed's long-awaited rate cut signals future drops

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Ting Shen/Bloomberg

The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds interest rate by 50 basis points on Sept. 18, bringing about the end of its post-pandemic policy tightening cycle and providing bank executives with optimism about decreasing economic pressures.

The Federal Open Market Committee's cut was approved by an 11-to-1 vote, as lone dissenter Gov. Michelle Bowman felt 25 basis points would have been a more appropriate reduction. Future cuts are on the horizon before the FOMC concludes its meetings for the year, but the intensity and number of any decreases is still unknown.

"With the Fed pivoting, interest rates will be substantially lower over the next six to twelve months," Bill Adams, chief economist for Dallas-based Comerica Bank, said in an interview with American Banker's Kyle Campbell. "That is very welcome news for credit-sensitive sectors of the economy like housing, manufacturing, and retailers of cars and other big-ticket consumer products, which bore the brunt of high rates."

Read more: Fed's half-point rate cut: What bankers should know

Bank stocks rally in wake of half-point rate cut by Fed

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Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

Following the Fed's first cut in roughly four years, bank stocks responded positively to the prospect of avoiding credit loss pains even in the face of hampering short-term lending profits.

"We expect their deposit costs to reprice downward more slowly than their loan yields, constraining net interest income, which is most banks' largest revenue source," Allen Tischler, senior vice president at Moody's Ratings, said in an email to American Banker's Jim Dobbs. "[Long term], reductions in deposit costs will catch up and strengthen net interest income."

Market barometers like the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index ended the day of the cut up less than half a percentage point, but rose by more than 1% shortly after the Fed's announcement.

"We made a good strong start to this," said Fed Chair Jerome Powell. "The U.S. economy is in good shape … We want to keep it there."

Read more: Bank stocks rise after Fed cuts benchmark rate by half point

Warren Buffett pumps the brakes on Bank of America stock sales

Warren Buffett, chairman and chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway.
Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

In the latest development of Berkshire Hathaway Cofounder and CEO Warren Buffett's quest to thin his position in Bank of America, the Wall Street giant slowed the pace of stock sales as the average share price hit $39.30 on Sept. 10 — the lowest since the campaign began.

Each prior three-day stint of trading generated an average of $870 million for the firm, while this most recent wave only brought in $229 million, according to regulatory filings.

Read more: Warren Buffett's Bank of America stock sales slow after price declines

Incoming TD CEO faces big hurdles to success

TD CEO Bharat Masrani and incoming CEO Raymond Chun shake hands during a conference.

The tail end of Bharat Masrani's decade at the helm of TD Bank Group has been plagued with regulatory battles dragging down bank earnings growth — creating a challenging start for his replacement as president and CEO next year.

Recent hurdles include setting aside more than $3 billion to account for compliance failures in its U.S. anti-money-laundering processes, as well as pulling back from an anticipated purchase of the Tennessee-based First Horizon that was predicted to help support further growth in the region.

"The anti-money laundering challenges we face took place on my watch as CEO and I take full responsibility," Masrani said on Sept. 19 in a prepared statement. "In the coming months, I will continue to advance and direct the critical remediation program required to meet our obligations and responsibilities and strengthen our risk and control foundation."

Masrani's successor after his retirement on April 10 is Raymond Chun, who joined TD's management training program in 1992 and is the current head of Canadian personal banking.

Read more: As TD's CEO passes the baton, an insider inherits big hurdles

What an Apple Card partnership could yield for banks

Apple Card from Apple's presentation
David Paul Morris/Photographer: David Paul Morris/

Following the breakup between Goldman Sachs and Apple after the New York-based investment bank pulled out of consumer lending, rumors are circulating that JPMorgan Chase is next in line to take over the tech giant's Apple Card program according to a Wall Street Journal report released last week.

"When the Apple Card was launched in 2019, it was the most successful launch in history of a credit card — more users in the shortest period of time, ever," Richard Crone, chief executive and founder of Crone Consulting, an independent advisory firm for the payments industry, said in an interview with American Banker's Joey Pizzolato. "From 2019 to 2021, it grew at more than 53% compounded annual growth rate." 

Research from a July 2023 Statista survey found that roughly 40% of Apple Card holders earned $100,000 or more, with a further 34% of consumers bringing in between $50,000 and $99,999 in income.

Read more: What's at stake for banks vying for Apple Card's business

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