The next six months will see open-source software, and particularly the Linux operating system, round a turning point. Collectivism is coming of age. But with old-line firms and big commercial outfits like IBM, Computer Associates, Sybase and Sun Microsystems all moving to release code into the open, a world is coming where technology decision-makers definitely have more choices and with that, potentially more headaches.
It could also mark the point where open-source development gained enough momentum to spark eventual rivals to Linux itself.
The credibility of the Linux platform within commercial enterprises, including financial outfits big and small, has been established for some time now and continues to gain traction. Dresdner's investment banking unit, Charles Schwab's dot-com service, Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs all have operations riding on Linux.
Add mixed software stacks, data-base and softer applications to the picture and suddenly the horizons for open-source development are much wider. MySQL continues to gain currency from below, counting Germany's $800 billion HypoVereinsbank, Credit Lyonnais and Lloyds as users. Even Oracle, which turns its nose at competitors' open-source releases, has long had Linux-compatible suites. Netherlands-based Linux group senior architect Marcel den Hartog says he was visiting a Dutch banking client for Computer Associates, recently, one of the biggest in the country, and was told the firm has 60 open-source products they're either using or in development. And that's in finance alone-other business sectors suited to more rapid turnover and technology upgrades are spurring open-source development at an ever-faster rate.
Which in Andrew Tanenbaum's opinion makes it a very interesting time. Tanenbaum is on the computer science faculty at Amsterdam's Vrije University but is better known for creating Minix-a form of Unix-based teaching code. Linus Torvalds, in part reacting to that system, wrote Linux. "It's different if a bunch of hackers use it in their garage," Tanenbaum says. "The more big companies do it, the more serious it gets."
Whether this means the Linux system itself will ever get a run for its money from within open-source communities depends on perspective. Linux is so malleable that for some the prospect doesn't make sense-a developer could make a few modifications, call it something else and that would be a competitor, but with the kernel intact it's still Linux. "You don't want to be in a situation we saw at the beginning of Unix, where it was 33 flavors, like Baskin-Robbins ice cream," says Laura DiDio, a senior network analyst at Yankee Group. But it's not so clear-cut, especially given a move like Sun Microsystems' decision to release its Solaris operating system-seen by plenty of technology pros as a direct competitor to Linux-into the open-source community. Sun itself may be doing this because its business is under pressure, but it doesn't matter. Once code is out there, it's out there, and who knows what it will build one day? "There's going to be competition," Tanenbaum says. "The conversation is moving."
In Foxholes, No Time for Debates
What is clear is that open-source development continues to march into complex and large commercial businesses. Pascal Emile at investment bank Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein used to be the firm's head of market risk technology. He's on his way to becoming head of credit derivatives technology. He doesn't have to look far across the trading floor on a grey London afternoon to see open source making strides.
Dresdner has for some time been running most of its risk management applications-credit and market risk-on Linux, Emile says. The firm's also added trading systems to the Linux mix for both equities and, for debt, interest-rate derivatives. Dresdner runs Sybase database applications on Linux. Emile says the firm wants constant support for its core applications, but that otherwise the minds tasked with wiring the firm are open. "In terms of applications, more and more components on the open-source communities are used in order to control development costs and running costs," he says. "The market is maturing. We are constantly evaluating our projects and development."
It's no longer a question for technology professionals whether open-source works. It does, Emile says. Support may be an issue, but not operation. And Bill Weinberg, open-source architecture specialist at the Open Source Development Labs-where Linus Torvalds works-says the idea catches the attention of chief information officers because of the basics. "It means first and foremost vendor independence," he says. "They've had grief in the past from vendor lock-in. Having more than one purchase or support option makes a big difference." And the second thing is cost-cutting. There's no argument like it. This may be denting Microsoft and has surely Redmond worried-what doesn't worry the behemoth?-but it's got many resources available to defend its flanks. Sun must be feeling the heat, though. "You toss out Sun Solaris on those expensive SPARC proprietary boxes," says Yankee Group's DiDio, "and I've heard numbers from companies saying we've cut our hardware costs in half-and all the way down to we've reduced our hardware costs by an order or orders of magnitude."
Sun in the Open
Given this tilt in the landscape, it's no wonder then that Sun said last summer that it would release a version of its Solaris operating system for open-source development. A few weeks ago the firm gained an Open Source Initiative license. Sun didn't return calls for comment, but the move has everyone's attention; the license will probably govern Solaris when it comes into view. Similar competitive pressures have software vendors everywhere considering how to engage open-source communities. It's no accident that Sybase, IBM, Computer Associates and Sun all announced they would release code for what were proprietary products within a short time of one another.
It also shows the future. "From an independent software provider's perspective, it's getting hypey, to be honest," CA's den Hartog says. "On the other hand, every large company I visit talks about open source." Silicon Valley sales managers have been sweating for some time now. "If you look how hard it is to sell a commercial product in those companies, the things you have to do to make them accept your product, the things you have to adhere to and the rules they put on you, it's horrible," den Hartog says. Not to mention the discounts demanded. "And now they use an open-source tool? Suddenly all those rules go away. All those borders. Because hey, it's open-source, it works, who cares?"
The database market is dominated by Oracle-which also didn't return calls for comment-and other players are seeing a lot of new competition coming from MySQL on the low end. They can't compete with free, and can't compete with functionality alone. CA last year released its Ingres r3 database for open-source development, selling different levels of support for it.
For three months nothing happened-other than confused clients who still had long-term contracts for the paid version of Ingres. It seems to have been hammered out. "They are actually very happy with it. For them, the economics are suddenly much more interesting," den Hartog says, adding that a number of clients who were moving away from Ingres now are willing to try it open-sourced.
It's not hard to find critics who decry these kinds of moves as "abandonware" or "orphanware," products that really aren't meant to give open-source communities a push, but rather to put moribund products out to pasture and see what happens. IBM heard it when it last fall distributed its Cloudscape database code to open source through Apache as a project called Derby. "The unfortunate view is that we didn't have a home for it," says Jeff Jones, director of IBM's information management and strategy. "Cloudscape is a part of about 70 products and internal projects and it has an enormous life in IBM. It doesn't have a huge external customer base but an enormous following inside the company. It seems to be the case that this is a wonderful way to foster innovation."
Could the rush to distribute code be hype, a way to capitalize on the buzz open-source is getting? Sure. But there's more to it than that, and the origins won't matter in the outcomes, anyway. "The fact that IBM, HP, CA, Sybase are all doing this, putting their imprimatur behind it, does lend it a degree of legitimacy," DiDio says. "It's an indicator that this is a greenfield area and we want to hop on the bandwagon and see where it goes."
European Engineering
Wherever the bandwagon goes, it's going to have a lot of momentum. Even the European Union is getting into the act, giving seed money to a group of universities and software companies including Mandrakesoft and Finnish firm SOT to start the Environment for the Development and Distribution of Free Software-with plans to develop two applications, one a distributed peer-to-peer systems integrator, the other a quality control suite. "The project targets any open-source development, not especially Linux," says Paris-based project manager Stephane Lauri?re.
If the number of developing open-source database projects are anything to go by, decision-makers in the technology field are going to be faced with an exponentially increasing number of available applications, the quality of which is going to get better. "There are plenty on the market that are mature. Maybe not at the highest levels of accountancy, but that's just a matter of time," Lauri?re says. For example, former Viant CTO Kevin Carlson is currently sweet on Plone, a content management system built on Zope for firms that have a considerable Web presence. "There's a tremendous amount of interest in new applications that are open-source," Carlson says. "Just a couple years ago if you were out looking for an open source content management system you wouldn't have found one."
And it could well go beyond that-to expanding choices in operating systems themselves. As open-source is increasingly accepted, the creative juices that gave birth to Linux could produce alternative heirs-challengers to Torvalds. It could well start with Sun's release of Solaris to open source, sources say, and eyebrows were certainly raised when Apple moved from a completely closed system with its OSX release to a Unix variant. Dresdner's Emile says it remains to be seen how rich the Sun code is; he's expecting a pretty low-level release, and for it to come slowly. Yankee's DiDio is not so sure. "It's a survival tactic for them," she says. "They have to adapt or die."
But what matters is what gets made. Once out in the wide world, who knows what'll happen to Solaris? OSDL's Weinberg says he's not sure a community will develop "by fiat" around it. In any case the floodgates are open, and new alternatives are on the way. Whether that includes operating systems-derived from Sun or, more likely, hatched from something unforeseen-is a guess. It'll have to offer something better, more compelling, different than Unix or Linux or Windows. Plenty of engineers, technology pros, and CFOs would prefer less than more-every new system means new support and something new to learn. "More choice of operating systems isn't necessarily a good thing," IBM's Jones says.
For his part, den Hartog at CA takes a few steps toward saying Linux is the doorstop operating system. "Look at IBM. They're maintaining five different operating systems. If they can reduce that to one or two, the cost savings are huge." He points out that Hewlett-Packard has to support OpenVMS, Windows on Intel, HP UX, Linux, Tandem, and two or three more. "They will make sure, and they will help each other to make sure, that something like this does not happen to Linux."
There's a pause. "Then again, I remember when Linux first started becoming popular a lot of people said, 'Eh, that's it! We finally have the ultimate operating system.' I don't think that Linux will be the ultimate operating system," he says. "There will be one Linux, but in the next seven or eight years we will see a new operating system. It will be easier to use or we will do different things with it. There's always new stuff."
