Election season, economic power drive latest interest rate volatility

Mortgage rates maintained their upward movement this week, as economic strength led to further volatility. 

The 30-year fixed-rate average came in higher for the fourth week in a row, climbing up to 6.54%, according to Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The average took a 10 basis point jump from 6.44% seven days earlier.  

In late September, rates flirted with the 6% mark, falling as low as 6.08%. In spite of the recent upturn, the 30-year average is currently still more than a full percentage below 7.79% recorded a year ago.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, likewise, rose for the fifth straight week, coming in at 5.71%. In the prior survey, the average sat at 5.63%, while a year ago, it landed at its highest over the past 12 months at 7.03%. 

Recent economic data, including a hotter-than-expected jobs report, contributed to elevated rates of the last few weeks, putting a halt to their descent on the heels of the Federal Reserve's policy moves last month. Many had anticipated the Fed's rate cut would lead to further declines in mortgage interest rates. 

"Over the last few years, there has been a tension between downbeat economic narrative and incoming economic data stronger than that narrative," said Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater, in a press release.

"This has led to higher-than-normal volatility in mortgage rates, despite a strengthening economy." 

Movement of 10-year Treasury yields, which influence the direction of rates, likewise rose over the last seven days. The 10-year yield had leveled off to 4.08% on the afternoon of Oct 17, but accelerated to 4.2% this Thursday. 

Current political developments are also behind some of the recent volatility, according to Chen Zhao, economic research lead at Redfin. 

"Investors in the bond market are particularly worried about the possibility of increased government debt after the election," Zhao said in a statement.

"They're concerned that one party could end up controlling both the White House and Congress, which would increase government spending more. That concern, along with strong economic data, is pushing up 10-year Treasury yields and mortgage rates," she added.

The latest increase in rates threw cold water on lending activity over the past month, with the Mortgage Bankers Association reporting new application activity slowing to its slowest since August this week. 

Housing researchers continue to see opportunity in the numbers despite the uncertainty, with recent robust demand for home tours and other buyer services pointing to interest, Redfin reported. Many hopeful homeowners continue to sit on the sidelines in expectation of a return to lower rates, representatives of the brokerage said. 

"Despite the current rate volatility, rising housing inventory levels and easing home-price growth remain positive developments for prospective buyers this fall," MBA President and CEO Bob Broeksmit concurred in an issued statement. 

Other industry rate trackers showed similar movements over the past week, with Zillow reporting a 6.52% average Thursday morning for the 30-year fixed rate, which reflected a weekly 6 basis point rise from 6.46%.

Meanwhile, the 30-year conforming fixed average at product pricing engine Optimal Blue's rate tracker was 6.66% as of Thursday morning, up from 6.43% a week ago.