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More banks are steadily raising and reinstating cash dividends. Bankers say the increases reflect improving confidence with the economy, though some investors contend that higher payouts signal challenges deploying capital.
May 19 -
New York Community has long wanted a deal to push it over $50 billion of assets. While Astoria accomplishes that, it does little to diversify New York Community's geography or reduce its reliance on multifamily lending.
October 29 -
While executives are eager to put excess capital to work, the sell-off of KeyCorp stock following the announcement of the First Niagara deal shows investors will react swiftly and severely when it appears a buyer has overpaid.
October 30 -
October was one of the best months in recent memory in terms of the number of deals and their aggregate value. If that pace continues, 2015 would be the strongest year for bank M&A since the financial crisis.
November 2
For many bank investors, the days of
That was the view a panel of M&A experts shared Wednesday while explaining the negative market reaction to two recent bank deals. Shares of
Those deals illustrate the beginning of what promises to be one of
"People got very, very comfortable with stock buybacks and big dividends," said Emmett Daly, a principal at Sandler O'Neill, describing those options as "not strategic" to long-term growth. "I think you're just moving into another phase of the M&A cycle."
Shareholders have been "struggling" to evaluate the latest big acquisitions, focusing too narrowly on tangible book value and earnback periods, said Gary Howe, a managing director at Lazard. "Those factors, while important, are less relevant in a stable-credit and growing-earnings environment," he said, noting that investors should focus on the deals' potential for long-term returns.
The comments were part of a broader panel discussion on financial services consolidation hosted by Mergermarket Group.
The latest purchases by the $92 billion-asset Key and the $44 billion-asset New York Community are part of a growing industry shift toward bigger deals involving mid-cap banks, panelists said. The KeyCorp and New York Community acquisitions — valued at $4.2 billion and $2 billion, respectively — were the second- and third-largest deals announced this year. (The biggest was Royal Bank of Canada's $5.3 billion purchase of City National in Los Angeles.)
The banking industry in October
M&A "has absolutely exploded," Daly said. "We all knew it was coming. I was just a question of who, what and where."
KeyCorp and New York Community have drawn investors' ire for their deals. Key's purchase of First Niagara, for instance, was criticized by investors as being too expensive and too dilutive to tangible book value. New York Community spooked shareholders by announcing plans to restructure its balance sheet, raise capital and cut its dividend in conjunction with buying Astoria.
Still, panelists said they believe those deals are only the beginning of a new wave of activity.
"I think now you've got 18 to 24 months of huge deal activity," Daly said.
Shareholders' reactions to last week's deals also highlight the importance of shareholder engagement, panelists said.
"You have to manage investors," said Venkat Badinehal, a managing director at Deutsche Bank Securities, noting that the Key and New York Community deals generated a unique set of concerns among investors.
The panel also discussed the growing role of
Astoria
"A lot of these investors got in during the crisis when [banks were] a distressed play," said Joseph Vitale, a partner at Schulte, Roth & Zabel. "Now they are looking for some sort of exit."
Regulators in recent years have also taken a more favorable view of activist investors that push boards to take a fresh look at unprofitable balance sheets, Vitale said. "Most people at the Fed and the FDIC still think there are too many banks … and that many of the banks don't have a business plan that's particularly attractive in a low-rate environment," he said.
Activists are "impacting the psyche" of the industry by going after bigger banks, said Brian Moon, a managing director at Wells Fargo Securities.
For instance, activist investor Carl Icahn
Activists, which have
"Activism will claim one large financial institution, in terms of meaningful change" in 2016, Howe said, declining to name any specific target.