Election could mean new leaders for key Congressional committees

Bloomberg News

A handful of tight Senate and House elections will determine control of key Congressional committees in Tuesday's federal election, with the outcome determining the shape of a high-stakes tax policy debate and the next surface transportation bill.

There are 34 Senate seats that will be decided in Tuesday's election. Democrats need to flip only four seats to win back a House majority. The Cook Political Report rates 22 House races as toss-ups. Most polls give Republicans a narrow edge in the Democrat-controlled Senate and Democrats a narrow victory in the Republican-controlled House.

If the chambers switch party control, leadership of key committees that affect the municipal bond market will shift.

Sen. Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, would likely ascend to the helm of the powerful Senate Finance Committee, which has jurisdiction over the tax code, if Republicans take the Senate. Crapo in recent hearings has warned of the major costs of expiring TCJA provisions, but more recently has floated a workaround by arguing that simply extending current law does not require offsets. That could help protect the municipal bond tax-exemption, which is being eyed as a revenue raiser next year.

The Senate Committee on Banking Housing and Urban Affairs faces major changes in its makeup depending on the outcome of the election, especially if current Chair Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, loses his race. If the Republicans gain control of the Senate, the presumption is that Ranking Member and Trump loyalist, Tim Scott, R-S.C., would take over the chair. 

On the House side, current Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith, R-Mo., has formed 10 tax teams to solicit input on tax reform next year, and reportedly has said he wants to move fast on policy changes in the case of a Republican sweep.

The Ways and Means committee figures to play a major role in next year's tax debate as various provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expire at the end of 2025. Smith has suggested that the state and local tax deduction cap, an important issue for the muni market, would remain in place but that it may be adjusted up from its current limit of $10,000 and the so-called marriage penalty would be eliminated.

If the Democrats re-take the House, Ranking Member Richard Neal, D-Mass., long considered a muni-bond champion, is expected to take over the chair. Neal held the position from 2019 to 2023.

The House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure is currently chaired by Rep. Sam Graves, R- Mo., who, if Republicans retain control, would hit his six-year term limit on the committee. Graves is expected to seek a waiver asking to continue his leadership.

If Graves fails in his bid, Rep. Rick Crawford, R-Ark., who leads the Highways and Transit Subcommittee, is angling to become the next chair.

If Democrats take the House, Washington ranking member Rep. Rick Larsen is expected to become the chair.

The next leader will take the helm as the committee begins to write the next surface transportation bill as the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act expires on Sept. 30, 2026.

Policy decisions will include whether to continue the IIJA's emphasis on competitive grant programs or shift back to formula funds. Congress may also decide to finally tackle the insolvent Highway Trust Fund, which ran a deficit of more than $21 billion in fiscal year 2024, by far the largest such deficit in its history, according to the Eno Center for Transportation.

The House Financial Services Committee, which oversees Wall Street, will see a leadership turnover no matter the election outcome as Chair Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., retires. Potential Republican replacements include Kentucky Rep. Andy Barr, Michigan Rep. Bill Huizenga and Oklahoma Rep. Frank Lucas.

Ranking member Rep. Maxine Waters of California would retake the helm if Democrats win the House. Waters has named long-term reauthorization for the flood insurance program, as well as updating FEMA's flood-mapping analysis as top priorities.