Declines in regional bank stocks point to a still-unfolding crisis

Bank liquidity
Fears about the banking sector's stability have continued this week, eroding hopes that JPMorgan Chase's government-assisted purchase of First Republic Bank would soothe investors' nerves.
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The stock prices of several regional banks plummeted on Thursday, a sign investors aren't convinced that the troubles of the past two months are over.

Shares of PacWest Bancorp closed down 50%, and the Beverly Hills, California-based bank indicated that it was exploring strategic options. Western Alliance Bancorp in Phoenix lost 38% while Comerica in Dallas lost 12%. The KBW Nasdaq Banking Index fell 4%.

The sharp price declines highlighted investors' shaky sentiment about the health of the banking sector. Industry leaders had predicted that the announcement of JPMorgan Chase's regulator-assisted purchase of First Republic Bank at the start of the week would bolster investors' faith in the sector, leading bank stocks to recover some of the ground they had lost since March. That turnaround has yet to materialize.

Large declines in a bank's share price can pose risks for a bank — in addition to those faced by shareholders. When prices fall dramatically, depositors can get spooked and begin withdrawing uninsured deposits. In turn, deposit declines reported by banks can trigger further trouble for a bank's stock price.

"If this scares enough depositors that they leave, the bank in question could have problems creating more liquidity," said Tim Coffey, associate director of depository research at Janney Montgomery Scott.

Analysts at Autonomous Research wrote in a research note Thursday that there are "obvious fears of the negative feedback loop between stock prices and deposits."

The banks affected in this round of the banking crisis differ from Silicon Valley Bank, the collapse of which kickstarted the crisis, because they haven't incurred major losses on long-dated securities.

In addition, many of the banks that saw their stock prices plummet this week have reported steady deposit balances in recent weeks — another key difference between them and the banks that suffered large deposit outflows in March.

Deposits at Western Alliance have so far been stable in the second quarter, including since the announcement of JPMorgan's acquisition of First Republic, the bank said Wednesday. Total deposits had risen to $48.8 billion on Wednesday, up from $48.2 billion on Monday. Capital levels and insured deposits were also on the rise, the bank said.

Western Alliance's stock fell sharply on Thursday after a report from the Financial Times said the bank was exploring a sale. In a statement, Western Alliance called the report "categorically false" and said "We are exploring all of our legal options in response to today's article."

Share prices at banks like Western Alliance are falling because of a bearish trading strategy in which the stock is shorted, not because of weakness in the bank's fundamentals, Coffey said.

One regional bank that lost substantial deposits during the first quarter is PacWest, the parent company of Pacific Western Bank. Like many larger banks, PacWest paid very little on customer deposits in recent quarters, which drove deposits out of the bank as customers sought higher yields, Bill Moreland, partner at BankRegData, wrote in a note.

"The largest four banks could get away with it, but the next tier does not seem to have that benefit," Moreland said.

In a statement posted to its website this week, PacWest said that it hadn't seen "out-of-the-ordinary" deposit flows in recent days. Core deposits at the bank have increased since the end of the first quarter, totaling $28 billion as of May 2.

PacWest said that its cash and on-hand liquidity are at 188% of the level of its uninsured deposits. The bank also said that its previously announced plan to sell its Lender Finance loan portfolio remains on track, and that the completion of that sale will boost a key capital ratio.

And after Bloomberg News reported Wednesday that the bank has been weighing a range of strategic options, including a sale, PacWest said that it has been approached by several potential partners and investors, and that discussions are ongoing.

"The company will continue to evaluate all options to maximize shareholder value," PacWest said.

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