Oil and gas companies may have fallen out of public favor in recent years amid concerns about carbon emissions and links to climate change. But the sector is thriving anyway, ramping up production of oil and gas to meet mounting global demand for American fossil fuels.
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The $79.3 billion-asset Comerica in Dallas, for one, grew its energy loan portfolio 8% from a year earlier to $1.5 billion for the fourth quarter, driven by credit extended to oil and gas production companies.
"Energy grew by winning new and expanding existing relationships," Chief Financial Officer James Herzog said during the company's earnings call.
San Antonio-based
"I think that the economy has been really picked up, and activity has really picked up after the election," Chairman and CEO Phillip Green told analysts on a call to discuss earnings. "I hate to use the word animal spirits, but those find their way into people doing projects, and that's a real thing."
Oil and gas markets struggled in the immediate aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic early this decade, when lockdowns to reduce the spread of the disease halted economic activity and stalled travel dampened demand for fuels.
But a swift U.S. economic rebound, followed by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, ramped up demand for American oil and gas. In protest of the war, Europe shifted its demand for oil and gas imports away from Russia and toward the U.S. American producers responded with record levels of supply in 2023 and again last year.
Oil production in 2024 averaged more than 13 million barrels per day. It averaged 13.5 million in January, near the all-time monthly high.
Natural gas production climbed to more than 107 billion cubic feet per day late last year, a record, and it has held near that level since, according to federal data. Companies continue to invest in growth, with several new liquefied natural gas export facilities under construction along the U.S. Gulf Coast in Louisiana and Texas. This could double gas export levels by the end of the decade, according to Goldman Sachs.
Goldman analyst Samantha Dart said U.S. gas export volumes reached a weekly record high in January. She expects them to grow further this year and again in 2026.
Rystad Energy analyst Mukesh Sahdev agreed but also cautioned that oil and gas demand could get upended by President Trump's new tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico. China, home to the world's second-largest economy, shot back with retaliatory tariffs on U.S. productions. A trade war could diminish China's appetite for American fuels and overall energy demand.
"The wave of tariffs implemented by the Trump administration will negatively affect demand, not only for the target countries but also globally," Sahdev said.
However, he added, even after accounting for tariff fallout, the International Energy Agency estimated global demand for oil and gas would rise this year.
Against that backdrop, executives at BOK Financial said they are seeing momentum in energy lending. While its fourth-quarter energy loans were down slightly from a year earlier, they were up 4% from the prior quarter.
Marc Maun, executive vice president of regional banking, said BOK "did generate a lot of new relationships at a much faster pace than we did the previous three quarters. … We expect that we'll continue to see some of the benefits from that. So that seems to have turned around and is in a growth pattern."
BOK's chief executive, Stacy Kymes, added that the Trump administration vowed to ease regulations affecting the energy sector. He expects this "will open up more federal lands for drilling."
