President Donald Trump's tariff policies have hung over the first week of banks' earnings season, prompting top industry executives to show greater caution about the outlook for the rest of 2025 than they exhibited in January.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said last Friday that the megabank's economists were pegging the likelihood of a recession
at about 50-50.
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan
was a bit more upbeat, saying BofA's research team did not foresee a recession in 2025. But he cautioned that the bank's researchers had lowered their GDP growth estimates for this year, and he noted that BofA has been rigorously stress-testing for more negative scenarios.
Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick
was candid about the uncertainty in connection with the nascent trade war sparked by Trump's larger-than-expected tariffs. "The simple truth today is that we do not yet know where the trade policy will settle, nor do we know what the actual transmission effects will be on the real economy," Pick said.
The slew of banks that are scheduled to report their quarterly earnings on Thursday will provide further insights about the expected impact of Trump's policies on the banking sector and the broader U.S. economy.
Those lenders include Detroit-based Ally Financial, whose fortunes are tied substantially to the automotive sector's performance. Trump has imposed 25% tariffs on imported vehicles, and levies on parts are scheduled to take effect next month.
Also scheduled to report its first-quarter earnings on Thursday is American Express. The credit-card giant's results reflect spending and repayment trends among its affluent customer base.