WASHINGTON — The midterm elections are shaping up to have a significant impact on the Senate’s banking policy agenda in the next Congress.
Five of the most contested races involve an incumbent who sits on the Senate Banking Committee, and a sixth race — for the Arizona seat being vacated by Republican Jeff Flake — includes a Democrat with industry support for her financial services positions in the House.
In three of the six races, the Democratic incumbents have touted their moderate views and support for the recent bill rolling back certain provisions of the Dodd-Frank Act, which became law in May. All three of those Democrats — Jon Tester of Montana, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Donnelly of Indiana — are
The Cook Political Report currently calls the North Dakota and Indiana races toss-ups, but is more favorable to Tester in Montana.
These races are key for bankers to watch. Tester, Heitkamp and Donnelly spent years negotiating a regulatory relief compromise with Banking Committee Chairman Mike Crapo, R-Idaho.
Geoffrey Skelley, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an elections newsletter published by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said that those seats are “going to be tough to hold” but that “historically, the nonpresidential party incumbents have done a very good job in re-election.”
While he does not see the support from moderate Democrats on the regulatory relief bill as having much of an impact on their elections, he did say the incumbents could sell it as showing willingness to work across the aisle.
“That legislation could be used as an example of bipartisan policy, common-sense legislation,” Skelley said.
Brandon Barford, a partner at Beacon Policy Advisors, said banks’ support for incumbents will largely depend on the regions they represent.
“Usually if a member is reasonably cooperative, you’d rather have the devil you know than the devil you don’t,” Barford said.
But for the biggest banks that tend to dominate coastal states, Barford said, they “wouldn’t be too sad to see those incumbents go,” particularly if they have been critical of the banking industry.
Here is a breakdown of the six Senate races for bankers to watch:
