How cybersecurity, AI and senate elections will shape banking in 2024

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After a chaotic year in finance punctuated by a banking crisis, inflation, rising interest rates,  and issues surrounding cryptocurrency and cybersecurity, bankers are doing their best to anticipate new challenges that will come in 2024, all while monitoring key races in an election year.

Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency tied to a "stable" or traditional currency, making them less volatile, theoretically, than other cryptocurrencies for investors. This year, stablecoins are expected to integrate with consumer platforms, making them more available outside of the traditional world of crypto investors, leading to potentially massive growth. "Stablecoin networks will become some of the most important financial structures in the world," said Jeremy Allaire, CEO of crypto company Circle, during a recent Circle virtual conference.

Regulators and lawmakers may have the biggest influence on stablecoins this year, as the current lack of regulations and differing rules across states could cause hesitancy in adoption. The European Union has already developed regulations that go into effect this year where stablecoin issuers will be required to be licensed in at least one EU country, and to demonstrate an ability to manage redemptions and have sound governance. 

Read more: 6 of the biggest threats banks faced in 2023

"The major headline for stablecoins in 2024 is the impending regulations in the U.S.," James Hiester, a principal consultant at Capco, recently told American Banker. "There have always been questions about the collateral backing stablecoins and the nature of that backing. A regulatory framework would provide a way to verify that assets are real."

Throughout 2024, financial institutions are also focused on embracing AI, with about three-quarters of banks and finance firms planning to invest more in technology spending, according to recent research from Arizent, American Banker's parent company. Artificial intelligence was at the forefront of technology discussions in 2023, and it will still be a hot topic this year as almost half of the survey respondents listed AI and machine learning as a top tech spending priority, especially among large national banks and payments companies.

Read more: The Fed says it can regulate stablecoins. So why doesn't it?

But with the rise of technology in banking comes a heightened worry about cyber crime. Ransomware remains a top concern, with nearly half of survey respondents citing enhanced fraud mitigation as a major spending area for their tech budgets. Regulators are also taking note of these new technology developments, especially AI, and providing guidance on cybersecurity. Firms are using this new technology to their advantage in boosting cybersecurity, using AI for anti-money laundering activities, automating filters for phishing messages and using computer hackers to find bugs in their systems.

As 2024 is also an election year, there are many key races that bankers will be watching aside from the presidential race, including the difficult reelection race of Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio.

Read more: Top AI companies join government effort to set safety standards

Catch up on all the developments and news that will shape 2024 for the banking industry. 

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Community bank stocks could rally in 2024

After the Fed paused its rate campaign last summer and U.S. inflation dropped to nearly a third of its 2022 peak, policymakers began to signal that rate cuts were on the horizon, perhaps as soon as the spring of 2024. The BMI Banks index rallied in the fourth quarter in response, gaining more than 20% over the final three months of last year.

"Rate cuts are definitely a possibility in '24," Robert Bolton, president of Iron Bay Capital, recently told Jim Dobbs of American Banker. "And that would create some clarity for banks' funding and for the economy in general."

Credit quality overall remains historically strong on the whole moving into 2024 and community banks, on average, were profitable in 2023. A boost to profitability this year would generate more earnings-generated capital and bolster banks' ability to pursue acquisitions, increase dividends or buy back more of their own stock, Bolton said.

Read more:  Why community bank stocks could rally in 2024
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Major players will drive stablecoin innovation

Stablecoins are pegged to a "stable" traditional currency, such as the U.S. dollar, to avoid the volatility of other cryptocurrencies. And the card brands are keen to see if people will use stablecoins to buy things. But in the past few years, stablecoins have made as many bad headlines as good. 

Still, massive growth could be on the horizon, as mainstream payment companies such as PayPal are increasing their exposure to stablecoins, while crypto companies such as Circle are building partnerships with firms that can provide scale. For example, Circle's latest roster of partners includes firms with millions of users, including Asian ride-share firm Grab and e-commerce firm Shopify.

"The trends are showing that stablecoins are not just a fad, but an important tool in both traditional financial services and distributed finance," said James Hiester, a principal consultant at Capco.

John Adams, executive editor of payments for American Banker, explores the players that will influence the next chapter in the stablecoin market.

Read more: Who will drive stablecoin innovation in 2024?
Crypto Currency Tokens As Billionaire Warren Buffett Said That Most Digital Coins Won’t Hold Their Value

Rules and regulations for crypto?

Absent legislation, enforcement by market regulators the SEC and CFTC will continue to focus on regulating major crypto players. Where judges side in the ongoing crypto legal battle between the SEC and Ripple, along with ongoing cases against Coinbase, Binance, and more recently Kraken, may provide the industry some certainty as to the legality of tokens and whether they qualify as securities or commodities. But regardless of the outcome of those cases, the crypto market will remain largely in suspense regarding its regulatory future into next year.

Ebrima Santos Sanneh, reporter for American Banker, maps out the developments to watch in the cryptosphere in 2024.

Read more: Four crypto developments to watch for in 2024 
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Key 2024 elections will capture bankers’ attention

The presidential contest is the most consequential race next year, to be sure: The outcome could mean a new crop of regulators affecting financial policy across the board. But a number of important senators from the Banking Committee — or those with significant financial policy experience — are also going to be on next year's ballot. 

Claire Williams, reporter for American Banker, outlines four important races for bankers to watch this election season, including the Ohio, Montana and California senate seats.

Read more: Elections that bankers need to watch in 2024 
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Banks will double down on tech investments in 2024

About three-quarters of banks and finance firms are planning to invest more in technology spending, according to recent research from Arizent, American Banker's parent company. 

The research comes from a survey of 314 representatives, primarily made up of leaders, from banks, fintechs, credit unions and payment companies. About one-third of respondents are planning to increase their annual tech spending by 1% to 9%, another third expect a 10% to 19% increase and about 9% of respondents plan to raise their tech budgets by more than 20% from last year.

Catherine Leffert, reporter for American Banker, dives into what Arizent's research showed are the top tech priorities for financial institutions in 2024, from AI and cybersecurity to the ongoing commitment to mobile apps.

Read more:  What will banks' tech priorities be in 2024? 
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