Who will have the biggest impact on the banking sector in 2025? American Banker's editorial team compiled our annual look at the people who will matter this year in banking. Our list includes politicians, bankers, regulators, tech execs, lobbyists and lawyers who could change banking for the better — or for the worse. Below, find the list in alphabetical order, except for President-elect Donald Trump, who is slated to have an outsized effect on the industry.
Donald Trump
Neither Trump nor his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, made firm campaign promises with respect to banking. Trump vowed to cut regulatory red tape and bring the economy back to where it was between 2017 and roughly March 2020, and that can offer bankers some clues about what the next president will do.
One initiative Trump undertook before he left office in 2021 and has promised to take up again is a retooling of the federal workforce to make it more directly accountable to him. How far Trump intends to take that initiative is unclear — particularly as it pertains to banking regulators — but he wouldn't have to do much for banks to notice the difference. A Consumer Financial Protection Bureau with new leadership and new staff could point that agency in a more industry-friendly direction. A similar dynamic at the Federal Reserve — which controls not only bank regulatory policy but also monetary policy — could have more unpredictable ramifications for banks.
What seems assured, based on experience from Trump's first term in the White House and from Republican administrations more generally, is that the president's team will remove many, if not all, of the most onerous rules set under President Joe Biden. A Trump administration could decide not to defend many of the rules now being challenged in court. The CFPB's zealous enforcement of bank and nonbank malfeasance on untried legal grounds will likely end. Gone is Biden's skepticism of bank mergers. All of that works in banks' favor.
But Trump also had a tendency in his prior term to crack down on bad actors when their actions stirred sufficient public outrage. Trump promised to go after Wells Fargo as that bank's cross-selling scandal took flight; he was president when the Federal Reserve imposed an ominous asset cap on that bank in 2018 and seems to have never said anything about it one way or the other. That could mean that banks will have to consider that a lighter regulatory touch brings with it the need to be especially careful that their own houses are in order. — John Heltman
Michael Barr
That leaves Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr potentially to carry a heavy mantle alone.
Barr's vice chairmanship runs until summer 2026. His seat on the board of governors expires in 2032. In the near term, Barr will try to finalize a revised version of the contentious Basel III endgame capital proposal without triggering a legal challenge from banks. He will also look to lock in changes to long-term debt requirements, enhanced liquidity standards and a lower cap on fees for processing debit card transactions. Regulatory reforms are voted on by the full board of governors, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell plays a significant role in that process, but Barr sets the regulatory tone for the agency. — Kyle Campbell
Mike Bell
Through November, there were 20 deals this year involving credit unions buying banks. The industry has surpassed the prior record of 16 set in 2022. Recently, Bell advised Y-12 Federal Credit Union in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, which said in October it would acquire
Bell correctly predicted 2024 would prove a record year. He expects momentum to extend into 2025, though that is not a sure thing. Community bank advocates oppose these deals.
The Independent Community Bankers of America says credit unions are exempt from federal taxes so that they can cater to underserved markets or constituencies — not to buy private-sector banks. When they buy banks, credit unions effectively become banking companies while retaining their special tax status, ICBA argues, creating an unfair playing field.— Jim Dobbs
Michelle Bowman
Bowman occupies the board seat reserved for a governor with banking or bank supervision experience. She has both, having worked as a vice president at her family's bank and serving as the state banking commissioner of Kansas.
Bowman frequently voices concern about policy impacts on community banks and has been the lone dissenting vote on several regulations. This advocacy has made her popular among bankers.
Bowman has been floated as a potential replacement for Michael Barr as vice chair for supervision, the Fed's top regulatory policymaker. Barr still has a year and a half left in his vice chairmanship, but Trump advisors are reportedly exploring options for stripping him of the title. — Kyle Campbell
David Cody and Luke LaHaie
Lenders appear to be embracing Guzman's priority, with a growing number launching initiatives aimed at making loans of $500,000 or less. Few have done so with more gusto than Newity, which originates 7(a) loans for the Portland, Maine-based Northeast Bank and has emerged over the last few months as one of the nation's most prolific SBA lenders.
Indeed, through the first six weeks of fiscal 2025, which began Oct. 1, Northeast — with Newity's help — is the nation's number-one 7(a) lender by unit count, with 1,070 approved loans. Northeast's average loan size is $156,600, well below the program-wide average of $407,000.
Luke LaHaie, Newity's co-CEO, intends for Northeast to stick around in the top spot. LaHaie, who said the demand for small-dollar SBA finance has been overwhelming, believes his team can originate at least 600 loans a month going forward. And with applications running in the neighborhood of 10,000 a month, Newity is working hard to fine-tune its processes. The goal, LaHaie said, is to reduce the time from application to funding to 21 days. It's likely getting there would push production even higher.
Newity's partnership with the $3.94 billion-asset Northeast traces back to 2020, when it helped originate Paycheck Protection Program loans. Once PPP ended, LaHaie and co-CEO David Cody retooled Newity's operation to focus on 7(a) loans. Under 7(a) SBA provides guarantees ranging from 50% to 85% on loans made by private lenders.
Newity had a small-dollar focus from the start, but it took time to hit its stride. Originations, which totaled less than 450 during SBA's 2023 fiscal year, surpassed 2,500 in fiscal 2024. "We've got about 100 people," LaHaie said in a recent interview with American Banker. "This is all we do, small-balance working capital loans with Northeast Bank. That's the product." — John Reosti
Raymond Chun
There to
Several potential successors to Masrani have been floated over the years, including the CEO of TD's U.S. subsidiary, Leo Salom,
"TD has so many advantages: a powerful balance sheet, terrific talent, high-performing businesses and leading franchises in Canada and the U.S.," Chun said on a September conference call. "We also have a significant challenge in front of us. … We have the team in place to strengthen our foundations, overcome the current challenges and write the next chapter of TD's story."— Catherine Leffert
Jamie Dimon
The 68-year-old boss of the nation's largest bank said in May that his timetable for retirement was less than five years — a benchmark he'd cited in the past when asked about how long he planned to stick around.
Whenever Dimon ultimately steps down, his decision will set off a series of dominoes that is likely to stretch beyond JPMorgan's doors, affecting other big banks as well.
Dimon's successor is expected to come from an
For now, though, Dimon continues to make his mark atop a bank that not only sets the pace on financial performance, but also has emerged as one of the clear leaders in the industry-wide
Richard Fairbank
Whatever the outcome, Fairbank's $35 billion bid for Discover marks a major test for regulators' appetite for larger bank mergers. Some progressive groups and lawmakers are raising red flags, arguing the combination would create a credit card behemoth.
Capital One counters that the card market would stay competitive despite the merger. Plus Fairbank has touted what he's called the "holy grail," being able to run debit and credit cards on Discover's payments network.
Putting Capital One's weight into Discover could make that network more competitive compared to two key rivals, Visa and Mastercard, the argument goes.
Whether that will sway bank regulators or the Department of Justice isn't clear. But Trump's election victory could make big deals more achievable. — Polo Rocha
Umar Farooq and Max Neurkirchen
Farooq has led Onyx, JPMorgan's blockchain division, while Neurkirchen has led merchant services for the bank. JPMorgan is facing major regulatory changes, such as new open banking rules in the U.S. that could boost competition from fintechs and smaller banks, and pending credit card legislation that could squeeze card fees. There are also major technology projects underway as JPMorgan expands in the areas of blockchain,
Jane Fraser
The market appears to be responding to her efforts. The bank's stock has seen a 62% increase since the announcement, and for the t
As part of the reshuffle, Fraser continues to wind down retail operations in Russia, China and Korea.
The three-time
Tom Fraser
The idea behind the $3.3 billion-asset, Lakewood, Ohio-based FMHC was to create an umbrella organization that could help small depositor owned-banks rein in expenses and preserve their charters. Four mutual institutions have joined in the past nine years.
In September, Fraser, First Mutual's CEO, gave the model a new wrinkle, presiding over a first-of-its-kind, $5 million
Fraser was named president and CEO of First Mutual's flagship bank, the $2.9 billion-asset First Federal Lakewood, in 2013. Fraser
Travis Hill
Working alongside McWilliams, Hill spearheaded a Trump-FDIC rule in 2020 narrowing the definition of deposit brokerage. In his time as Vice Chair, Hill has opposed Biden-era rules —
Hill has also been a
Hill will also shape some of the highest priority regulatory measures for banks in the Trump era. Chief among these is a
Gunjan Kedia
If it happens, Kedia would become
Kedia, born in India, is
U.S. Bancorp CEO Andy Cecere will turn 65 in July. He hasn't announced when he plans to retire.
Thomas Kurian
Under Mandia, Mandiant
Kurian and Sandra Joyce, vice president at Google Cloud and head of Mandiant intelligence, will play a pivotal role moving forward in gathering and disseminating the cybersecurity intelligence Mandiant has gained a reputation for collecting. — Carter Pape
Robert Lighthizer
As a presidential candidate, Trump expressed support for an across-the-board tariff of 10%-20%, a tariff of at least 60% on goods imported from China and a 25%-100% tariff on products made in Mexico.
It's not clear what role Lighthizer might have in Trump's next administration, but it will likely fall to him and his allies to turn the president-elect's campaign promises into action. Lighthizer is a 77-year-old lawyer who's long argued that mainstream economists miss the benefits of tariffs and overstate their costs.
Critics of protectionist trade policies warn that Trump's tariff plan amounts to a large sales tax on U.S. consumers, and that it risks sparking trade wars. Lighthizer is said to believe that it will spark a renaissance in American manufacturing.
If large-scale tariffs are enacted, the economic ramifications will be substantial, and U.S. banks will feel the effects, whether they facilitate global trade or not.
Goldman Sachs economists predicted on Nov. 14 that the Trump administration will ultimately impose higher tariffs on automobiles and imports from China. "The biggest risk is a large across-the-board tariff, which would likely hit growth hard," they added. — Kevin Wack
Jonathan McKernan
The FHFA could be a key center of action over the next four years, as the debate over the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may finally come to a head. Isaac Boltansky, an analyst at BTIG Partners, wrote in a Nov. 7 note to clients that if Trump chooses to prioritize ending the 16-year-old conservatorships, that goal will be accomplished.
Mark Calabria, who served as the FHFA's director during the first Trump administration, gave a similar assessment during a pre-election
Brian Moynihan
Meanwhile, Bank of America is also reworking its branch network to milk markets where it has a smaller presence for more consumer growth.
In 2024, the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank saw compressed income as industry-wide tepid loan growth and expensive deposits dragged on its balance sheet. Coming up, Bank of America could also be hit with one or more public enforcement actions with regulators to resolve compliance concerns.
But Moynihan, a pillar of the megabank scene since he took the helm at Bank of America in 2010, is confident in the direction of the $3.3 trillion-asset company's business.
Moving into a second Trump administration, the 65-year-old leader said at a November conference that economic policies should enhance American strengths, like innovation and capitalism. — Catherine Leffert
Satya Nadella
This market domination has also earned criticism
Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, has the power to seek further consolidation or change company policies to satiate these concerns. Either way, securing Microsoft products (
Joseph Otting
Now all eyes are watching to see if Otting, who was the head of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency from 2017 to 2020, and his
Otting isn't a stranger to bank overhauls. In 2008, he and fellow former Trump administration official Steven Mnuchin, who led the $1 billion investment in Flagstar, took over California lender OneWest Bank and turned it around, selling it to CIT Group in 2015.
Otting's plan will face some challenges. Flagstar posted a
Jerome Powell
The Fed has made strides in stabilizing prices, but inflation remains stubbornly above the central bank's 2% target. Trump policy proposals such as universal tariffs and sweeping tax cuts could lead to rapid price growth once again.
Then there's the personal politics. Powell and Trump bumped heads repeatedly during Trump's first stint in office and the president-elect's advisors are reportedly weighing their options for removing or demoting Powell.
But Powell, whose chairmanship ends in 2026 and whose board position does not expire until 2028, has said emphatically that he will not step down and that Trump can't force him to. The conflict could have ripple effects for bank policy and the economy writ large. — Kyle Campbell
Charlie Scharf
Scharf joined
It's not a done deal yet, and Scharf has long said any progress will be accompanied by setbacks. Indeed, a new regulatory action over anti-money laundering protections raised the specter of more regulatory pushback.
But there have been some tangible signs of progress, with regulators lifting other penalties as Wells Fargo gets its house in order. Investors sense Scharf will soon succeed at getting the asset cap lifted, supercharging the bank's growth after years of constraints.
Scharf has declined to speculate on regulators' timeline. But he has made strides to improve Wells Fargo's business in the meantime, trimming its vast mortgage footprint, growing its underperforming credit card business and increasing its investment banking presence. — Kevin Wack
Taylor Swift
Swift was rattled by AI-generated images of her falsely endorsing former President Donald Trump. "It really conjured up my fears around AI, and the dangers of spreading misinformation," she wrote on Instagram to her 283 million followers.
It may never be clear how many people voted only because of Swift's statement, or whether their votes were enough to sway the election. But regardless, her message got through.
In a recent interview,
Tools like blockchain can provide that answer in a trusted way that AI does not, he said.
"One of the things we want to do is make sure that we are questioning what we're seeing," Zoldi said. "When we're leveraging tools like large language models, we have to be constantly aware of the fact that there's mistakes and hallucinations made … one of my biggest fears is that people just go on autopilot and they'll just use the technology and not question it." — Daniel Wolfe
Elizabeth Warren
Warren makes frequent calls for increased regulation over nearly every aspect of the financial services industry with an eye toward increasing consumer protections. This past year alone she's called for an
She's even
That's unlikely to change in 2025 or through the end of the decade as Warren serves her third term, although the Democrats will be the minority party in the Senate. — Joey Pizzolato
Kevin Warsh
That said, Warsh or whoever Trump would like to tap for Fed chair will have to wait. Current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's term expires in February 2026, and it's unclear whether Trump would try to oust him from his position in the interim (Powell himself has
Xi Jinping
Chinese criminals support the Mexican drug trade through
Xi can direct his party to continue supporting these cyber operations against critical infrastructure in the U.S. He can also continue to participate in