Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the underlying U.S. economy is healthy and there's no reason to see a recession, while rejecting the idea of assuring there cannot be a downturn.
"I can't guarantee anything," Bessent said in an interview Tuesday with Fox Business' Maria Bartiromo, dismissing any question about assuring there won't be one as "silly."
Economists have warned there is a rising risk of an economic downturn thanks to uncertainty over President Donald Trump's tariff hikes and to worries over their impact once the levies are decided on and implemented.
"What I can guarantee you is there is no reason we need to have a recession," Bessent said. "We're seeing some very good underlying data," he said, pointing to figures from credit cards and banks.
Bessent said there may be a "pause" as the economy transitions from relying on government spending, but the Trump administration is "going to get this spending under control, we're going to bring manufacturing back home and we're going to make the country more affordable for working Americans."
Reciprocal tariffs
While the Treasury chief cautioned that "I haven't seen the numbers" with regard to reciprocal tariffs that are set to be announced on April 2, he said the process would involve each trading partner getting assigned a particular duty.
"What's going to happen on April 2 — each country will receive a number that we believe that represents their tariffs," he said. "For some countries it could be quite low. For some countries it could be quite high."
Bessent expressed optimism that in some cases, a country might avoid reciprocal tariffs "because a deal is pre-negotiated." Other trading partners might seek to negotiate down their duty level after they receive their number, he said.
The Treasury secretary also said his department is working with Congress on legislation further restricting outbound investments into China.
Outbound investment
The Biden administration issued an executive order in 2024 that required screening and reporting of some U.S. investments into China, but some China hawks on Capitol Hill are pushing for the Treasury to do more.
"We will make sure that our outbound investment doesn't turn around and get used against us," Bessent said. "We are going to continue investigating this and where necessary block it."
